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Noted on 22 Sep 2026

TfL is drawing up plans for a publicly owned bus company. Fourteen months ago it declined to write a plan for car clubs. Two decisions that tell you the same thing about what TfL believes it's for.

First buses. TfL confirmed last week that it's developing detailed proposals for a publicly owned bus operator, delivering a pledge from the Mayor's 2024 manifesto. 8 private companies currently run London's 675 routes on seven-year franchise contracts, with TfL setting the routes and the fares. The business plan's stated aims are innovation, efficiency and accountability. I don't yet have an opinion on whether it's a good idea (that's an argument about operating margins, and I don’t have the numbers), but it's an clear statement of ambition.

Now car clubs. In April 2025 the London Assembly's Transport Committee asked the Mayor to produce a pan-London car club action plan within twelve months, with financial exemptions equal to or lower than private cars get. The reply, in July 2025, was: "TfL does not propose creating a new car club action plan. It has less direct influence in the delivery of car clubs, compared to other modes where it has action plans". It offered instead to refresh/rehash the six commitments it made in 2022.

Six months after their reply, Zipcar left the UK, and London's car club fleet dropped by 90%.

TfL isn't wrong about the influence. Car club bays are borough kerb, permits are borough policy, and there are 33 boroughs. Where TfL already holds the contract, it now wants to own the operator as well. Where it doesn't hold the contract, it won't own the plan. Influence follows the money it already controls, rather than going where the network needs real support.

I've said before that car sharing is a form of public transport in everything but the timetable, and I still think so. I'm not arguing for a publicly owned/operated car club. I'm arguing that "less direct influence" describes the current arrangement only, and TfL has just shown it's perfectly willing to change an arrangement when it wants to.

If you're a borough or an operator: what would a pan-London car club plan actually need TfL to do that it can't already? I'd genuinely like to know where the influence runs out.

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Google recently ran an experiment most councils only get to argue about in theory: reroute a small number (under 2%) of trips away from your most congested roads, and see what happens.

Published in Nature Cities in June, a proper switchback trial, six months, ~100 segments across 10 US cities, alternating which areas got the treatment day by day. Not a simulation, not a vendor whitepaper.